Market Watch: 4th Quarter 2022


Good Sentiment in The Market as The Fed Holds Brake on Interest Rate 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy on the outlook for the economy, inflation, and the changing labor market (Wed 11/30).

The rupiah has the opportunity to increase amid a correction in the US dollar because the Fed is expected to no longer be aggressive in raising interest rates. 

Though the threat is still going to be there, at least our currency won’t be as vulnerable to capital outflows following the US Federal Reserve’s interest as before.

Bank Indonesia has little room to support the economy by increasing its 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate again in the near future.

Seeing this, we can hold bright optimism for upcoming years as the investment climate in Indonesia will certainly do better.

KoinWorks NEO Going Strong Despite Tech Companies’ Slow Down

These past few challenges for tech companies with the layoffs and slowdown amidst the shadow of the global economic recession expected to happen in 2023.

Tech giants such as Meta, Salesforce, and Netflix recently announced hiring freezes or layoffs as cost-cutting pressure and rising inflation were combined with an oncoming bear market and rising interest rates.

However, KoinWorks NEO performed really well as of October 2022 in terms of transaction volume with 47% month-on-month growth.

As 100,000 MSMEs started joining a hassle-free culture in managing their business finance, we are optimistic that we can sail through the storm in the upcoming year.

Crypto is going down but Real Sector Investment is an alternative to that

The crypto market is melting down, and bitcoin’s price shows it.

Following the collapse of FTX, one of the largest and fastest-growing crypto exchanges, Crypto prices were highly volatile with a downward trend.

Recent price fluctuations highlight the heightened volatility that crypto has been recently experiencing, likely due to poor macroeconomic headwinds and the recent bankruptcies in the crypto world.

On the other hand, in the third quarter of 2022, Indonesia’s economic growth is still strongly supported by the trade balance, household consumption, and investment as the main pillars. BPS recorded that our GDP grow 5.72% (YoY) in Q3 2022 with the manufacturing sector growing by 4.8% (YoY) as well as the textile and apparel industry and the footwear and leather goods sector growing by 8.1% and 13.4% (YoY) respectively.

Seeing this growth, big optimism will come from real sector investment in the real sector, especially in these three sectors will be really good for investment portfolio diversification as it can both grow personal assets while supporting the economy.

The Price of Gold is expected to rise in 2023

So far this year gold has struggled to maintain its shine amid mixed market sentiment. The price of gold which had shone brilliantly in early 2022, or to be precise in early March, was driven by sentiments of the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict, but then declined due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the aggressive increase in the Federal Reserve’s (The Fed) benchmark interest rate.

However, economists have predicted that the Fed is going to stop raising interest rates aggressively in 2023.

This condition could lead to positive sentiment for gold prices, which are predicted to strengthen again in the upcoming year.

Therefore, it is probably wiser to keep your gold investment for a longer period rather than cut it loss for now.

Indonesian Crude Price Increased, Electric Car is predicted to boost Indonesia’s Economy by 2030

Growth in the natural resource downstream sector grew strongly with the base metal industry recording growth of 20.2% (YoY) supported by increasing demand for electric cars worldwide.

A number of issuers are aggressively flapping their wings into the electric vehicle ecosystem.

The holding of the B20 and G20 conferences is a momentum to launch corporate actions in this segment.

The issuer’s incessant expansion into the electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem makes EV-related stocks an attractive choice for next year.

In the long term, the shares of issuers that have ventured into EVs are quite promising, because the government is serious about developing EVs.

The upstream business is indeed more stable, but with rapid technological developments, the downstream EV business can change.

From upstream providers of EV raw materials, ANTM and INCO shares are the choices for collection in the portfolio next year.

As for the downstream shares, INDY and TOBA have a potential short-term increase.

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